Tag Archives: disaster probability

Disaster Probability and Commonality

There are many reasons we prepare. The concept of probability and commonality among disasters will help us in our preparedness planning.  We are only human and as such only able to prepare to our given ability both financially and intellectually.

What is Disaster Probability?

First off lets define a disaster.  It is an event which affects you directly.  It may be a job loss,  loss of a loved one, electrical disruption, monetary disruption.  These are all “disasters”.  Maybe not in the classical apocalyptic way, but disasters to you none the less.

So disaster probability is the likelihood a disaster will take place in your life.  The higher the probability the more likely it will happen.  EVERYONE will suffer from a disaster in their life at one time.

They can be the following.

  • Loss of a loved one
  • Loss of a job
  • Loss of income
  • Loss electricity
  • Loss of water

As you can see there are many “disasters” in our life.  The next thing we think about is the commonality of the disaster.  Or how likely is it to occur?

Disaster Commonality is how often do these things occur.  Things like loosing a loved one will occur for everyone at some point.  So this disaster is very common.  Not everyone will have a wide scale electrical blackout.  So this is less common.

As we go down the probability scale and the less common disasters the impact usually goes up.  When you have a wide scale electrical blackout it affects more people than you loosing your job.  This commonality can also be known as impact scale.

So how do we plan for disaster probabilities and commonalities?

By analyzing what the highest probablity is, we can decide where we should focus. We will focus on the highest probability disasters first.

  • Store food- When you lose a job or income you still have bills to pay.  Having enough food in storage will reduce some of the stress of having to provide for your family.  I recommend trying to have 90 days.  Start with 2 weeks and work your way up.
  • Eliminate debt-  The fewer payments you have to make the easier it will be to ride the storm.  This also means trying to pay your house off early as part of your preparedness plan.  If you lose your job and you have no food payments and no other monthly payments, imagine your stress level.
  • Have savings-  This goes along with the above two.  Having enough money to make life’s road a little smoother is something we should be doing.  Having 90 days worth of food and 90 days worth of savings will enable you to make good decisions based not upon fear.
  • Keep cash on hand-  Having some money available for when there are electrical outages is what we are talking about.  2 weeks to 30 days worth should do it.  This will enable you to maintain commerce.
  • Have a garden-  The ability to grow food will let you not worry about any sort of distribution problems.
  • Alternative Energy-  Have alternative lighting and heat. This can be a generator or solar power or solar heat.  Have something so you are not as dependent on one source for your needs.
  • Bug out plans-  If you need to leave, do you have a plan?  Make one and rehearse it with your family.  Knowing what to do when you can’t stay home is invaluable.

By analyzing which are the most probable disasters you can prepare more effectively.   We just do not want to survive, we want to thrive.  Thriving is planning for it.  We want to be comfortable.  Imaging how much easier it would be if your spouse dies and you have no debt and 90 days worth of money so you did not have to worry about anything but grieving.  This is thriving.

We prepare in general to be able to adapt, succeed and overcome the disaster at hand with the resources we have available even though there are resources we do not.  This is why knowledge and skill sets are so important.